Nova Scotia Power is required to generate 80% of its power from renewable sources by 2030, but can it?

By law, Nova Scotia Power has to generate 80% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

Last September, the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (UARB) ordered Nova Scotia Power to file “a detailed and specific plan” outlining how and when that will happen. The filing deadline was December 31, and yesterday the UARB posted Nova Scotia’s Power’s 46-page response entitled ‘The Path to 2030.’

‘The Path to 2030’ states that a working group that includes Nova Scotia Power personnel and Department of Natural Resources and Renewables staff will coordinate provincial and utility efforts to meet the 80% renewable goal.

But the report outlines significant risks that could make meeting the 2030 deadline all but impossible. 

Here are three risks, as described in the report:

• Supply chain: There continue to be constraints in the global electricity industry supply chain due to factors such as high demand/capital build-out across the industry, extreme weather and other one-time events, general inflation, and geopolitical events. This is leading to longer lead times, price increases and volatility, and lack of equipment availability. 

• Project approvals: The 2030 Clean Power Plan requires the approval of large, capital-intensive projects such as Independent Power Producer (IPP) wind deployment and NS Power transmission builds. These projects will need clear First Nations, Community, and Stakeholder support to receive environmental approvals. IPP projects will require interconnection facility approvals and inclusion in fuel cost recovery. NS Power projects will require regulatory approval for cost recovery within electricity rates. These cost recovery mechanisms are critical to the execution of the resource development plans identified above. 

• Human Resources: The electricity industry continues to face a shortage of talent due to high demand in both the electricity industry and adjacent industries, such as housing and other construction. This is leading to cost pressures, staffing challenges, and ultimately project delays. Talent shortages have the potential to affect NS Power, its partners across the province, and its contractors and suppliers. 

As readers of the Halifax Examiner will recall from the province’s Clean Power Plan released in October, the government is counting on more than 1,000 MW worth of new renewable energy from wind farms to be built over the next six years to displace coal. Nova Scotia Power envisions 1,500 MW of new wind generation capacity and 200 MW of new solar generation.

‘The Path to 2030’ does not discuss the cost of the conversion to renewable power.

Some progress, a long way to go

Wind

The first five wind farms approved by the province are supposed to add 373 MW of renewable electricity by the end of 2024. Nova Scotia Power has been working with private wind companies (the independent power producers, IPP) in Falmouth, Wentworth, Marshy Hope, Wedgeport, and Dalhousie (Pictou County) to coordinate the infrastructure to connect them to the grid.

But Nova Scotia Power notes that supply chain issues may delay the in-service dates of these key projects:

Several completed Facilities Studies have noted that supply chain delays impacting long lead time components such as high voltage breakers may delay project completion beyond the dates requested by interconnection customers; NS Power is actively working with suppliers and proponents to identify options to mitigate these delays, where possible, in a constrained global supply chain environment.

A second batch of renewable energy projects launched April 2022 under the Green Choice program encourages large consumers of electricity — factories, universities, and hospitals — to sign contracts with independent power producers to generate another 350 MW. Most of the projects are expected to be wind farms although solar arrays are also eligible. 

The Request for Proposals (RFP) was issued December 1, with bids closing in June of 2024. The target in-service date for this covey of wind farms is December 31, 2028. ‘The Path to 2030’ document doesn’t discuss supply chain issues or other problems those wind farms may face.

Port Hawkesbury Paper Wind, a sister company to Port Hawkesbury Paper, is developing a large 168 MW wind farm to support the operation of the paper mill. It’s expected to begin operating late in 2025. 

Another 150 MW of wind power being developed by independent power producers and sold to businesses or municipalities is expected to come online by December 2024.

Solar

Although the Houston government changed the Electricity Act in April 2022 to (1) allow for people to sell to Nova Scotia Power a limited amount of solar energy surplus to their needs and (2) increased to 1 MW the amount of surplus solar energy commercial establishments could sell, it wasn’t until July of 2023 that the UARB approved the regulations submitted by Nova Scotia Power that will finally allow this to happen. 

Households can now sell excess solar capacity. The government anticipates this type of net-metering will eventually result in the production of 50 MW of renewable solar power. 

A larger amount of solar — 100 MW or more — is expected to come from recently approved regulations that will allow municipalities, non-profits, colleges and universities, and First Nations to establish “community solar gardens.” From the ‘The Path to 2030’:

The Community Solar Program is anticipated to launch in the next few months, following proclamation of amendments to the Electricity Act. Programming and project enrolment is supposed to start immediately following the launch with the first solar gardens operational in 2025.

The province’s 2030 Clean Power Plan identifies the potential for additional procurement activities “in the 2023-27 timeframe” beyond those noted in Nova Scotia Power’s latest report. 

Battery storage

The 2030 Clean Power Plan calls for significant deployments of grid-scale storage in Nova Scotia to back up intermittent wind power. The installed capacity aims to reach 300-400 MW by 2030. 

Nova Scotia Power is currently working on a pilot project involving three 50 MW or four-hour battery storage units located near sub-stations in Halifax County, Hants County, and Lunenburg County. The three big batteries are targeted to go into service during 2025-26. 

‘The Path to 2030’ document says the province plans to issue a RFP before June 2024 to procure another 150 MW of storage from other companies. 

The in-service date for battery systems supplied by companies other than Nova Scotia Power is listed as 2026.

Second NS-NB transmission line (Inter-tie)

Nova Scotia Power and New Brunswick Power are moving forward with a plan to construct a second overhead power line between Onslow, Nova Scotia and Salisbury, New Brunswick. 

The Environmental Assessment for the Nova Scotia portion of the line has been approved. 

In New Brunswick, New Brunswick Power plans to file its Environmental Assessment in the first three months of 2024, with a decision expected later in the year. 

Regulations governing the financing of the federal portion of the cost of the new “clean electricity” transmission line are expected by the fall of next year so that construction could begin during 2025. 

In its ‘The Path to 2030’ document, Nova Scotia Power indicates this new line will not deliver “firm” electricity but add another source of “variable renewable generation” such as wind and hydro. 

Here’s the wording describing the proposed transmission line that is the legacy of the doomed Atlantic Loop:

It will improve the reliability of Nova Scotia’s transmission link to the New Brunswick Power system and the broader Eastern Interconnection, enabling the integration of additional variable renewable generation on the Nova Scotia system. The Reliability Tie is not anticipated to provide incremental access to firm capacity or energy. NS Power is developing the Reliability Tie in collaboration with NB Power with a target in-service date in 2028.

An engineering and design contract was awarded in October. Nova Scotia Power has signed a collaboration agreement with KMKNO representing the Mi’kmaq people to deliver benefits during construction. 

Throughout 2024 and 2025, Nova Scotia Power says more engineering and costing will take place to determine the viability of a proposed second transmission line that would run between Salisbury and the Point Lepreau nuclear station in southwestern New Brunswick. 

The Nova Scotia government’s 2030 Clean Energy Plan does contemplate such an extension of the inter-tie “to enable greater access to New Brunswick, New England, and Quebec energy imports and exports.”

The cost to of the Point Lepreau extension would also require upgrades to a couple of lines within Nova Scotia. Last fall, the ballpark estimate to build the two transmission lines was $1.7 billion, with that cost to be shared between utilities and governments. 

Fast-Acting Generators

The addition of hundreds of MWs of renewable energy will lead to some changes to the system. 

When wind, solar, and hydro production drops, the utility needs a type of generating unit that can power up quickly — within 10 minutes — to replace the lost energy. The system must also be able to power down quickly when wind turbines start spinning. 

Studies carried out for Nova Scotia Power have determined 300 MW of fast-acting generation will be needed by 2027, and generators powered by natural gas or light fuel oil will be the first choice, with the proviso that future models can accommodate the use of non-emitters such as hydrogen and biofuel. 

Nova Scotia Power has identified the need for 870 MW of fast-acting generation through 2032 as the grid de-carbonizes by eliminating coal as a fuel. 

Over the course of 2024, Nova Scotia Power is promising to select locations for these types of generators (generally speaking, the sites need to be near existing natural gas pipelines) as well as choose the suppliers and apply to the UARB for the tens of millions of dollars to buy the technology.

Converting coal-fired power plants to oil

‘The Path to 2030’ does envision phasing out coal as required by federal and provincial legislation — but not closing down the actual power plants. 

Instead, four generating units previously run on coal will be transitioned to using natural gas or heavy fuel oil. 

Environmentalists with the Sierra Club and Ecology Action Centre aren’t going to like this. 

However, under federal legislation limiting carbon emissions, these generating units must be used sparingly — only during the coldest days or during emergencies when the rivers are dry or the wind isn’t blowing — to keep the lights on and act as a back-up source of generation. 

Here’s the latest timeline for phasing out coal-fired units:

• NS Power’s coal-fired plant at Point Tupper will be converted to run on natural gas by 2028. Timelines and engineering work will begin in 2024.

• In Cape Breton, Lingan units 1, 3, and 4, which generate 450 MW, will stop burning coal and burn only heavy fuel oil. No conversion is required as the units already have this capability. Nova Scotia Power is beginning preliminary work now with the units expected to transition from coal during 2028-30. 

Curbing demand

Energy efficiency programs that include insulating homes and businesses, installing heat pumps, and solar panels can reduce the need to supply as much or more electricity. 

The approved investment of $173.1 million for what’s called “Demand Side Management” in 2023-2025 represents a 62% increase over the previous budget for 2020-2022. 

Nova Scotia Power says it is working with EfficiencyOne to develop incentive programs for businesses and homeowners to help shift/reduce demand for electricity during peak periods such as cold winter nights or hot summer evenings. By 2025, the Nova Scotia Power target is to reduce demand during peak times by 75 MW. So far, no programs beyond time-of-day pricing have yet been offered.

Green hydrogen and offshore wind

‘The Path to 2030’ notes both proposed hydrogen projects — EverWind and Bear Head — plan to purchase renewable energy from privately owned onshore and offshore wind farms. 

Nova Scotia Power does not envision itself as a supplier, however, the utility is currently investigating how much it will charge potential hydrogen developers for using Nova Scotia Power transmission lines to deliver the massive amounts of energy needed to operate hydrogen and ammonia-producing facilities. The tariff will have to be approved by the UARB. 

To support the hydrogen industry, the province has announced it will make available sea-bed leases to offshore wind developers interested in producing up to 5 GW of renewable energy. 

The timelines for new federal-provincial regulations as well as for the offshore means no offshore wind energy is likely to be added until after 2030. 

Nova Scotia Power says it will continue to “monitor developments to inform future planning.”

And offshore wind is not the only development the utility is keeping its eye on:

Although federal Clean Energy Regulations are anticipated to come into effect in 2035, beyond the 2030 horizon of the plan described in this filing, the CER will influence the lowest-cost, long term electricity strategy for the Company. NS Power will continue to monitor developments through 2024.

Grid Stability 

“The transition from a traditional power system, largely made up of synchronous generators, to a power system which will rely heavily on inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as wind, solar, and battery energy storage, will require new sources of grid support to maintain the stability, reliability, and power quality of the transmission system” says the report to the UARB. 

In terms of how Nova Scotia Power proposes to do that, the company says the first step is to carefully monitor the interconnection of additional wind farms and solar projects. 

In a report issued December 8 on integrating renewable sources, the company states: 

NSPI can incorporate renewables, in particular inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as wind, limited only by the load to be served and the best economic dispatch. There will be technical challenges and the grid will need significant support as many legacy thermal plants are phased out or converted to alternate fuels. That said, it is achievable with the existing and evolving technologies.

Technically speaking, greening the grid by the end of 2030 is possible. But this report flags a number of speed bumps and concerns before arriving at that destination.

Click or tap here to read ‘The Path to 2030.’