Voter turnout drops dramatically

Voter turnout in yesterday’s council and mayoral elections collapsed from even previous woeful lows. Fewer votes were cast in the mayoral election. Fewer votes were cast in 14 of the 16 council districts; and while two districts saw an increase in the number of voters, they probably saw a decrease in percentage of voters casting ballots.

The numbers show a dramatic decrease in voter turnout.

In the mayoral election, nearly 20,000 fewer voters cast ballots yesterday than in 2012 (110,114 in 2012; 90,418 yesterday).

The mayoral race, however, may not be the best indicator for voter turnout. Mayor Mike Savage is popular and faced a lacklustre challenge by Lil MacPherson, and so many voters may have stayed home. Moreover, there were four acclaimed council races — races in which the incumbent faced no challenger. While voters in those districts could still vote for mayor, they may have sat the entire election out.

But a district-by-district examination of votes cast show that turnout was down nearly across the board.

Voter turnout dropped in districts where incumbents faced no serious challenge. Take the Eastern Shore, for example, where David Hendsbee yesterday won with nearly half the votes in a field of four. In 2012, 7,749 people cast ballots; yesterday, just 6,574 did.

But voter turnout also decreased in tight races where an incumbent was defeated. For example, yesterday Shawn Cleary bested Linda Mosher by just 105 votes in District 9, but voter turnout in the district dropped from 8,759 in 2012 to 7,578 yesterday.

Voter turnout also dropped in races with no incumbent and lots of candidates. In 2012, 7,517 people cast ballots in Halifax North; yesterday, 6,627 did so. In Dartmouth Centre, 8,973 ballots were cast in 2012; yesterday, 7,752 were cast.

There was a late night glitch at the Elections Office — more on that later — that resulted in officials posting election results by hand. That means that while we have accurate vote counts for the elections, we don’t at this moment have the number of eligible voters or the percentage turnout in each district. As a work-around, I compared the total number of votes cast in this election with the number of eligible voters in the 2012 election.

That’s not a perfect measure. In one instance — Dartmouth North, District 6 — it appears that the number of eligible voters has decreased over the past four years. But most other districts have grown in population, so the voter turnout is probably worse than the below figures indicate.

But given that caveat, it appears that the percentage of eligible voters casting ballots is at an all-time low. For example, using the number of eligible voters in 2012, turnout in the mayoral election saw a drop of nearly seven percentage points, from 36.93% to 30.32%. The actual drop was likely even more precipitous — given population increases, the actual voter turnout yesterday was probably below 30%.

The figures are likewise distressing in the above examples of council races.  Using the 2012 figures for eligible voters as inexact guide to gauge turnout yesterday, on the Eastern Shore turnout dropped from 38.69% in 2012 to 32.82% yesterday. In District 9, turnout dropped from 38.69% in 2012 to 32.82% yesterday. In Halifax North, turnout dropped from 37.99% in 2012 to 33.48% yesterday. In Dartmouth Centre, turnout dropped from 42.45% in 2012 to 36.67% yesterday.

The only districts that saw an actual increase in numbers of voters casting ballots were Districts 13 and 14. In District 13, where incumbent Matt Whitman handily fended off a challenge by Pamela Lovelace, the number of votes cast rose from 7,189 in 2012 to 7,441 yesterday. In District 14, where challenger Lisa Blackburn squeezed by incumbent Brad Johns by just 47 votes, the number of votes increased from 4,373 in 2012 to 4,818 yesterday. Still, while the numbers of people casting ballots increased slightly in both districts compared to 2012, they are the fastest growing districts in HRM, and so the percentage turnout likely declined.

Mayor
2012 votes cast: 110,114
2012 voter turnout: 36.93%
2016 votes cast: 90,418
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 30.32%

District 1  (Waverley – Fall River – Musquodoboit Valley)
2012 votes cast: 6,800
2012 voter turnout: 43.40%
2016 votes cast: 5,917
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 37.76%

District 2 (Preston – Chezzetcook – Eastern Shore)
2012 votes cast: 7,749
2012 voter turnout: 38.69%
2016 votes cast: 6,574
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 32.82%

District 3 (Dartmouth South – Eastern Passage)
ACCLAIMED
2012 voter turnout: 38.56%
2016 votes cast: 0
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 0%

District 4 (Cole Harbour – Westphal)
ACCLAIMED
2012 voter turnout: 37.74
2016 votes cast: 0
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 0%

District 5 (Dartmouth Centre)
2012 votes cast: 8,973
2012 voter turnout: 42.45%
2016 votes cast: 7,752
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 36.67%

District 6 (Harbourview – Burnside – Dartmouth East)
2012 votes cast: 6,688
2012 voter turnout: 34.76%
January 2016 votes cast: 3,721
January 2016 voter turnout: 18.08%
October 2016 votes cast: 5,554
October 2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 28.86%
October 2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in January 2016: 30.69%
Note: the number of eligible voters in District 6 declined from 19,238 in 2012 to 18,093 in January 2016

District 7 (Halifax South Downtown)
2012 votes cast: 6,057
2012 voter turnout: 33.82%
2016 votes cast: 4,811
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 26.86%

District 8 (Halifax Peninsula North)
2012 votes cast: 7,517
2012 voter turnout: 37.99%
2016 votes cast: 6,627
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 33.48%

District 9 (Halifax West Armdale)
2012 votes cast: 8,759
2012 voter turnout: 42.03%
2016 votes cast: 7,578
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 36.36%

District 10 (Halifax – Bedford Basin West)
2012 votes cast: 5,759
2012 voter turnout: 30.54%
2016 votes cast: 4,716
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 25.01%

District 11 (Spryfield – Sambro Loop – Prospect Road)
2012 votes cast: 6,191
2012 voter turnout: 33.74%
2016 votes cast: 4,879
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 26.59%

District 12 (Timberlea – Beechville – Clayton Park – Wedgewood)
2012 votes cast: 6,560
2012 voter turnout: 34.90%
2016 votes cast: 5,669
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 30.16%

District 13 (Hammonds Plains – St. Margarets)
2012 votes cast: 7,189
2012 voter turnout: 40.21%
2016 votes cast: 7,441
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 41.61%

District 14 (Middle/Upper Sackville – Beaver Bank – Lucasville)
2012 votes cast: 4,373
2012 voter turnout: 28.45%
2016 votes cast: 4,818
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 31.34%

District 15 (Lower Sackville)
ACCLAIMED
2012 voter turnout: 36.95%
2016 votes cast: 0
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 0%

District 16 (Bedford – Wentworth)
ACCLAIMED
2012 voter turnout: 38.34%
2016 votes cast: 0
2016 voter turnout, using # of eligible voters in 2012: 0%